In the Multiple Scenarios Generation process, after brainstorming key drivers, what is the next step?

• A. Define extremes for each driver
• B. Pair drivers in matrices
• C. Develop stories for quadrants
• D. Validate indicators

Answer: (C)

The main idea is to translate a set of driving forces into tangible futures by creating quadrant stories that show how different combinations of uncertainties play out. After you’ve brainstormed key drivers, the next move is to develop narratives for the four quadrants. This step turns abstract drivers into concrete, plausible futures, making the interactions between drivers clear and testable.

Writing the quadrant stories serves a few purposes. It forces coherence among drivers by showing how they influence events, timing, and outcomes in each possible future. It also helps stakeholders grasp implications, risks, and opportunities in a way that’s easier to compare across scenarios. For example, if one driver is market demand (high vs. low) and another is regulatory stance (supportive vs. restrictive), each quadrant gets a narrative about what the world looks like, what triggers change, and what that means for strategy, operations, or policy.

After these narratives are in place, you can move on to refining indicators, testing strategies for robustness, and exploring implications, but the four quadrant stories are what concretize the scenario space and guide later analysis.