What do Cause and Effect Techniques build upon?

• A. Intuition and anecdotal evidence only.
• B. Applying theory, comparing with historic analogies, and using situational logic.
• C. Pure data without theoretical framing.
• D. Random generation of scenarios.

Answer: (B)

Cause and Effect Techniques rely on a structured reasoning approach that combines theory, historical comparison, and contextual logic. The theory gives you the expected relationships and mechanisms by which one event could influence another. Historic analogies provide concrete reference points from past cases, helping you see whether similar causal chains occurred under comparable constraints. Situational logic then evaluates how the current context—timing, capabilities, incentives, dependencies—affects plausibility and likely outcomes. Together, these elements create a coherent, testable framework for inferring causation and predicting effects.

Relying solely on intuition and anecdotes can mislead because these are idiosyncratic and not systematically related to how causal processes typically unfold. Pure data without theoretical framing lacks an interpretive lens to connect observations to causes. Generating scenarios at random has no basis in evidence or reasoning. The combined approach of theory, historical analogies, and situational logic is what makes Cause and Effect Techniques robust.