What is the first step in the Multiple Scenarios Generation process?

• A. Brainstorm key drivers
• B. Define the focal issue
• C. Define extremes for each driver
• D. Pair drivers in matrices

Answer: (B)

Defining the focal issue sets the lens, boundaries, and purpose for the whole exercise. It clarifies what decision or policy the scenarios are meant to illuminate, the time horizon, geographic scope, and who the stakeholders are. With a clear focal issue, you ensure every driver and uncertainty you later examine stays relevant to that central question, avoiding drift into tangential topics. Once the focal issue is established, you can then brainstorm the key drivers that influence outcomes, define extremes for each to capture the range of possibilities, and finally pair drivers to create coherent scenario logics. Starting with drivers or pairing would risk building scenarios that aren’t tied to the central question or fit within the defined scope.