Which of the following describes testing a scenario against evidence?

• A. To prove the scenario is the only possible outcome
• B. To ensure the narratives align with policy
• C. To test narratives against evidence and adjust as needed
• D. To avoid collecting new data

Answer: (C)

Testing narratives against evidence means checking whether your scenario holds up when measured against real data and observations, and updating the narrative as new information comes in. This evidence-based, iterative approach helps separate plausible explanations from those that don’t fit the facts and keeps analysis flexible in the face of uncertainty. It isn’t about proving there’s only one possible outcome, nor is it simply about making sure a story matches policy; and it doesn’t advocate avoiding new data, since new information is what drives adjustments. So the description that best fits is testing narratives against evidence and adjusting as needed.